The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence

4/Feb 2015 3 min. read
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
Type:
text
Original date:
Jan 2015
Authors:
Tim Urban
Projects:
Creo Animam

An incredible, in-depth overview of the thinking around the development and rise of ASI (Artificial Superintelligece).

Make sure you read part two as well, which also contains and incredible list of resources: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html

Notes

  • ANI => AGI => ASI
    • Artificial Narrow Intelligence: all around us now, useful as a tool to think in “non human” ways or brute force some of the things humans/animals aren’t very good at
    • Artificial General Intelligence: general purpose intelligence on the level of a human
      • using a variety of techniques (most likely copying from human neocortex for human style thinking) and copying the rest of the brain for all the stuff animals find easy (and have been incredibly resistant to human engineering)
      • one thing missing from the article is that copying human-style intelligence might mean its as limited as we are even thought it might be able to think faster or with more brains, it might not be very different from a larger team of humans working around the clock (effectively but not super intelligent)
      • i.e. it’s not generally intelligent - it has human intelligence + machine intelligence
    • Artificial SUper-Intelligence: intelligence explosion of getting AGI to improve itself
  • has some great simple graphics that would make good additions to slides for talk

References from the article

The most rigorous and thorough look at the dangers of AI:

  • Nick Bostrom – Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies

The best overall overview of the whole topic and fun to read:

  • James Barrat – Our Final Invention

Controversial and a lot of fun. Packed with facts and charts and mind-blowing future projections:

  • Ray Kurzweil – The Singularity is Near

Articles and Papers:

  • J. Nils Nilsson – The Quest for Artificial Intelligence: A History of Ideas and Achievements
  • Steven Pinker – How the Mind Works
  • Vernor Vinge – The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era
  • Nick Bostrom – Ethical Guidelines for A Superintelligence
  • Nick Bostrom – How Long Before Superintelligence?
  • Nick Bostrom – Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion
  • Moshe Y. Vardi – Artificial Intelligence: Past and Future
  • Russ Roberts, EconTalk – Bostrom Interview and Bostrom Follow-Up
  • Stuart Armstrong and Kaj Sotala, MIRI – How We’re Predicting AI—or Failing To
  • Susan Schneider – Alien Minds
  • Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig – Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach
  • Theodore Modis – The Singularity Myth
  • Gary Marcus – Hyping Artificial Intelligene, Yet Again
  • Steven Pinker – Could a Computer Ever Be Conscious?
  • Carl Shulman – Omohundro’s “Basic AI Drives” and Catastrophic Risks
  • World Economic Forum – Global Risks 2015
  • John R. Searle – What Your Computer Can’t Know
  • Jaron Lanier – One Half a Manifesto
  • Bill Joy – Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us
  • Kevin Kelly – Thinkism
  • Paul Allen – The Singularity Isn’t Near (and Kurzweil’s response)
  • Stephen Hawking – Transcending Complacency on Superintelligent Machines
  • Kurt Andersen – Enthusiasts and Skeptics Debate Artificial Intelligence
  • Terms of Ray Kurzweil and Mitch Kapor’s bet about the AI timeline
  • Ben Goertzel – Ten Years To The Singularity If We Really Really Try
  • Arthur C. Clarke – Sir Arthur C. Clarke’s Predictions
  • Hubert L. Dreyfus – What Computers Still Can’t Do: A Critique of Artificial Reason
  • Stuart Armstrong – Smarter Than Us: The Rise of Machine Intelligence
  • Ted Greenwald – X Prize Founder Peter Diamandis Has His Eyes on the Future
  • Kaj Sotala and Roman V. Yampolskiy – Responses to Catastrophic AGI Risk: A Survey
  • Jeremy Howard TED Talk – The wonderful and terrifying implications of computers that can learn